Indianapolis Colts (14-2) : Being projected to win 14 games is pretty rare, but some of the advanced numbers actually have them winning that many games. Football Outsiders has their projected win total at 14.1 games, and predicts they will once again have the highest offensive DVOA in the NFL. Constantly unloading on teams is a great way to get to 14 wins, and their defense is probably going to be very good again so the rest of the division is in trouble.
Has Luck even reached his ceiling yet? Does he have one?!
Houston Texans (10-6) : The poor Texans are stuck behind the Colts in this scenario. Each of the past few seasons they have done well and made the playoffs. The problem is dropping two games to the Colts and fighting for a wild card. They have some serious issues at QB, but their offensive line and running game are strong. Just like the past few years, this teams has a really good defense, but their struggles on offense have relegated them to one-and-done status in the playoffs.
Watt continues to destroy offensive lines.
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10) : The Jaguars are not that bad, in fact they do have a very solid shot at going 6-6 or better outside of their Indianapolis-Houston matchups. They are like a very poor man's Houston at this point, their offense has issues but their defense plays well enough to beat bad teams. Blake Bortles has not developed as expected under center, and he may find himself out of a starting job if things don't improve. The best thing going for them in the division it that they could easily beat Tennessee twice.
Jeffrey is Jacksonville's only weapon.
Tennessee Titans (4-12) : Projecting 4 wins for this team is really hard, especially when Football Outsiders has their expected win total at 2.6. The Titans are probably the worst team in football, a classic example of constantly drafting high gone wrong. Their QB only have one year of experience, their offense is bereft of impact talent, and their defense is basically Jurrell Casey and Brandon Spikes trying to prop up everyone. It's going to be a long year for the Titans, it will probably be Ken Wisenhunt's last if they don't make the playoffs.
Spikes goes from first to worst in exchange for a huge paycheck.
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