2014 Colts - Week 2

8:30PM ET - September 15th, 2014
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts
Sep 15, 2014	1ST	2ND	3RD	4TH	SCORE
Philadelphia Eagles (2-0, 1-0 Away)	0	7	0	7	14
Indianapolis Colts (1-1, 0-1 Home)	3	3	0	11	17

Top Performers

Passing : A. Luck (IND) - 227YDS, TD
Rushing : L.McCoy (PHI) - 18CAR, 91YDS, TD
Receiving : R.Wayne (IND) - 8REC, 100YDS

INDIANAPOLIS - After a huge win on the road in Week 1 the Colts would get an extra day to rest, and they would desperately need that extra day. Hosting the high flying Eagles at home for a Monday Night opener would not be easy without their starting center. Khaled Holmes suffered an abdominal tear in their season opener and would be out for at least two weeks.

The Colts defense struggled right from the opening drive, allowing the Eagles to run all over them and march right down to the goal. Luckily a defensive stop, tackling Riley Cooper on 3rd down to for a 4th & 2 would hold the Eagles to a field goal.

Andrew Luck managed to engineer a 13 play 79 yard drive, going 8/8, and find TY Hilton for a TD in the second quarter. Another FG by the Eagles, thanks to another stop inside the 20, would leave the teams 7-6 at the half. The Eagles offense, mainly Foles, were not particularly sharp in the first half. The running game worked very well, but once they got inside the 20 the Colts managed to shut them down.

Hilton's TD gave Indy the lead.

The second half featured some serious miscues by the Colts, and to some extend the officiating crew. The Colts offensive line just fell apart in the face of the Eagles blitzing, getting to Luck and stoning Richardson again and again. Long possessions by both sides ate up the 3rd and neither team could score.

The Colts managed to get inside the Philidelphia 20, but facing 4th & 5 they opted to go for it instead of taking the points and instantly regretted it. The offensive line folded under a blitz and Luck was sacked almost as soon as he had the ball. The Colts had another chance on offense, this time converting the 4th down, but a questionable INT gave the Eagles the ball back on the 36. SS Malcolm Jenkins stepped up and blocked off TY Hilton on a deep pass already in the air, and Cary Williams happily snatched it. The ref failed to call a blatant pass interference penalty, and the Eagles had a short field. The Colts defensive finally came up big and held the Eagles to a 30 yard FG.

Kelly's offense failed to find it's wings for most of the game.

With the 4th quarter about to hit the 2-minute warning the Eagles ran over the Colts with a LeSean McCoy TD run and a 2PT conversion to go up 17-7. Luck took the ball with a little over 2:00 on the clock and marched down the field with a 7 play 73 yard drive to punch it in from the 1 with Trent Richardson. Unfortunately the Eagles recovered the onside kick and the game was over.

2014 Colts - Week 1

8:30 PM ET - September 7th, 2014
Sports Authority Field at Mile High - Denver, CO

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Sep 17, 2014	1ST	2ND	3RD	4TH	SCORE
Indianapolis Colts (1-0, 1-0 Away)	10	0	0	14	24
Denver Broncos (0-1, 0-1 Home)	0	14	0	0	14

Top Performers

Passing : A. Luck (IND) - 275YDS, TD
Rushing : T.Richardson (IND) - 18CAR, 72YDS, 2TD
Receiving : D. Allen (IND) - 7REC, 101YDS

DENVER - Ultimately this game would be billed as a Manning vs. Luck rematch, but neither QB would ever admit to that line of thinking. Payton Manning and Andrew Luck, both class acts and team players, would mention their team as a whole before ever bringing up any kind of conflict between them.

The Colts, heavy underdogs, famously came back to beat the Broncos in 2013 which would be an emotional return to Indy for Manning. This year it would be all business as the Broncos look to return to the Superbowl, and they wouldn't be interested in letting the Colts slow them down.

Indy came out with a very aggressive strategy, going for it on 4th & 1 on the Denver 40 in the 1st quarter. Trent Richardson was able to get the 1st down with a 4 yard run, but the risk was very real with Manning waiting to take over with a short field.

Vontae Davis would be all over Demaryius Thomas.

A 27 yard Richardson TD run and an Adam Vinatieri FG after a D'Qwell Jackson INT would put the Colts up 10-0 in the 1st. The Broncos would come right back with a short TD pass to Demaryius Thomas after a 13 play 81 yard drive. They would take the lead after a Danny Trevathan pick-six, and nearly made it 21-10 with a second pick-six that was negated by a clipping penalty.

Both teams kept it close through the 3rd, and the Colts took back the lead in the 4th quarter with a 3 yard TD run by Richardson. More solid defense, including two INT by Vontae Davis, kept Indy in the game until a 23 yard TD catch by TY Hilton made it 24-14.

The famous Manning Face.

Manning engineered a final drive highlighted by a 47 yard Hail Mary caught by Thomas on the 1 yard line, but the Colts defense came up big and stoned them to end the game. Manning would finish with a terrible game, going 18/25 for just 197 yards and 4INT. Davis and his 3INT would be the difference today.

2014 AFC South Predictions

AFC SOUTH PROJECTIONS

Houston Texans (10-6) : The Texans went from 12-4 to 2-14 at the drop of a hat, but most feel at it's core this team is closer to a 12-4 team than a 2-14 one. They will still be elite defensively, especially with Jadeveon Clowney and JJ Watt controlling the line of scrimmage, but offensively they will probably go through some growing pains. After passing on a QB in the draft they will have to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick after signing him off the junk heap, but they will probably continue to have a good running game so it might not be so bad. Rookie head coach Bill O'Brien is known more for his passing, their success may depend on his ability to reform a passing attack that was 15th overall in 2013. Schedule is very favorable with games against Oakland, Buffalo, and Cleveland.

Absolutely terrifying.

Indianapolis Colts (9-7) : This is more about the overall weakness of the division than the strength of the Colts, especially on defense. With the way Luck has asserted himself and played beyond his years it's very likely that the Colts claw their way back to an AFC South title, but it won't be easy. They have some brutal games (like traveling to Denver for their first game, and a visit from the Patriots) but dates with Dallas, Cleveland, and Washington will give them chances to stay ahead of their rivals. Injuries and suspensions have also limited the Colts' ceiling.

Could Luck-Hilton be the next Manning-Harrison?

Tennessee Titans (7-9) : Ken Wisenhunt takes over a team that has the potential to be very exiting, but also could fall flat on it's face. This team is going to be very dependant on Jake Locker, if Wisenhunt can work his magic they could be pretty good right away, but if Locker gets injured (again) things will go south really quickly. Schedule is decent with an opening game at vaunted Arrowhead and a late-season gift in the form of a visit from the Jets.

Locker and the Titans under Wisenhunt could surprise.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10) : The Jags are hard to read, after years of drafting high they have a lot of young talent but continue to stumble on the field. Jacksonville started 2013 0-8 before going 4-4 in the second half while looking like a completely different team. To be fair, two of those wins were against the Texans, but they showed enough to give fans hope. They will have a brutal late-night west coast game at San Diego, but they will get Cleveland, Dallas, and the NY Giants at home. They also dodge the Patriots with their AFC East match up against the Dolphins. Probably a year or two away from being decent, a lot of young talent is bound to sneak up on a team or two (or six).

Henne is probably a better fantasy option than a real QB.

2014 Colts Pre-Season

With the pre-season out of the way we have a much clearer picture of the Colts starting lineups. It's hard to read too much from scores, with the Colts finishing 2-2, but with Andrew Luck leaving after the first few series things didn't look great. Outside of the 25-7 victory over the NY Giants there wasn't much to get Colts fans excited.

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart - 2014
Regular Offense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
WR	R. Wayne	H. Nicks
TE	D. Allen	C. Fleener
LT	A. Castonzo	J. Reitz
LG	D. Thomas	J. Mewhort
C	K. Holmes	T. Austin
RG	H. Thornton	L. Louis
RT	G. Cherilus	X. Nixon
WR	T.Y. Hilton	D. Rogers
QB	A. Luck	M. Hasselbeck
FB	S. Havili
HB	T. Richardson	A. Bradshaw
Base 3-4 Defense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
LDE	C. Redding	R. Jean Francois
NT	B. McKinney	M. Hughes
RDE	A. Jones	F. Moala
LOLB	B. Werner	E. Walden
LILB	J. Freeman	A. Jackson
RILB	D. Jackson	K. Sheppard
ROLB	R. Mathis	C. Johsnon
CB	V. Davis	G. Toler
SS	M. Adams	C. Anderson
FS	L. Landry	S. Brown
CB	D. Butler	J. Gordy
Special Teams
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
K	A. Vinatieri
P	P. McAfee
PR	D. Moncrief
KR	D. Moncrief

OTA / PRE-SEASON ANSWERS

Quarterback : It wasn't really a question to start with, but if the Colts have a definitive answer anywhere it's under center. Andrew Luck is one of the best young quarterbacks (if not overall) in the NFL, and he should continue to drive the Colts. As Luck goes, so does the offense, which should be no surprise. It's all going to come down to the talent around him in 2015, even though they managed to exceed projections the last two seasons.

Luck may need an MVP season to get the Colts into the playoffs.

Special Teams : Adam Viniateri and Pat McAfee return, with Viniateri basically on the verge of retirement, and both continue to be solid. Griff Whalen and Donte Moncrief fought it out for return duties with Moncrief getting the nod after Whalen was cut. Coaches have eyed T.Y. Hilton for return duties, but he may be too valuable if Wayne or Nicks goes down with an injury.

Tight End : The assumption is that offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is going to go with more two-TE formations and emphasize the run this year. The organization has been excited about Dwayne Allen, who basically missed all of 2013 with an injury, and Coby Fleener. Fleener, a former college teammate of Luck, hasn't been able to produce the numbers expected from their relationship, but with Allen out he performed well in 2013 (52REC, 608YDS, 4TD) and hopes are that he will continue to be productive. Look for Luck to find his TE tandum if the WR group struggles with injury or performance.

FALL QUESTIONS

Defense : Alot of new faces next to ROLB Robert Mathis didn't do much to improve a unit that was 26th against the run in 2013. The Colts were decent against the pass (13th), but with SS Delano Howell moving into a starting role and CB Darius Butler starting opposite Vontae Davis, it's hard to see the Colts ranking as well in pass coverage. The Davis-Butler tandem have the ceiling of a very good pass defense, but it's hard to tell if that is ever going to materialize. The defensive line, coming out of a 3-4 scheme, is probably going to be just as bad if not worse this year. If the Colts are going to win the division or have a shot at the Wild Card they are not going to be able to depend on their defense, this is a unit that needs to be rebuilt as soon as possible.

Can Vontae Davis hold down the secondary by himself?

HB Pecking Order : Trent Richardson seemed like a no-brainer for the Colts, but now he seems like a real lemon. That being said, he still sits atop the HB depth chart, but that could change really quickly this year. Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw basically missed out on the entire 2013 season and both of them look like they could steal the starting HB job away if Richardson has a repeat of last season. All three have upside, but all three have serious downsides as well. Richardson has the advantage based on his contribution to the passing game, he still has a shot to prove that he is a 1st round talent. Few expect the Colts to rush much, but if they can't rush at all they won't be able to develop a balanced attack.

WR Depth : Reggie Wayne is 35 and coming off a season lost to injury, Hakeem Nicks is unreliable, and TY Hilton is mostly seen as a deep threat. 2014 3rd round pick Donte Moncrief is exciting, but few think he will have much impact in his rookie year, and Da'Rick Rogers only had 14 receptions last year. Unless Hilton develops into a defacto #1WR, things could get ugly pretty fast if Wayne or Nicks struggle.

2014 Colts Off-Season

Two years of exceeding expectations was quickly dashed in the first few months of 2014. The arrest and fall from grace of Colts owner Jim Irsay sent the organization into a tailspin that required immediate attention. In a stunning decision, approved by all 31 other owners, Irsay was banned from NFL ownership and forced to sell the team. While the Colts are hardly a "headline" franchise, valued at a little over $1 billion in 2012, it was a surprising move by the NFL to rid itself of a troublesome ownership situation.

With news of Irsay's ban leaking out through various sources, it didn't take long for potential ownership groups to take shape. In the end MSMG (Midwest Sports Management Group), headlined by Midwestern billionaire Warren Buffett, scooped up the team and set about rebuilding the franchise's image. The vast majority of team ownership (85%) is made up of a who's who in Midwestern / Indiana billionaires, the NFL was swayed not only by the finances but the idea of keeping the Colts in local hands. Buffet (Berkshire Hathaway) is joined by William Wrigley Jr. (Wrigley Management), Gayle Cook (Cook Group), and Herbert Simon (Simon Property Group) as the principal owners with Wrigley Jr. mostly taking charge as the face of team ownership.

The new face of ownership in Indianapolis.

Even with MSMG taking over they decided to keep team management in place so current GM Ryan Grigson would stay on for the near future. Ownership also came out in support of the current coaching staff and pledged to stay with Chuck Pagano and his coordinators. The Colts have avoided a complete rebuilding of the staff, but ownership is probably smart enough to know that March through July is a bad time to hire a completely new coaching staff. The next season or two will be key in determining what direction the team will move in.

EXPECTATIONS & TEAM TRAJECTORY

The Colts have been all over the map, especially since the departure of Peyton Manning, from Superbowl Champions to the top pick in the draft. The last two seasons under Andrew Luck were almost complete aberrations, with the surprise 11-5 season in 2012 prompting the previous ownership to double-down on 2013 and end up at 11-5 again. The sudden and almost unbelievable collapse of the Houston Texans helped the Colts to an AFC South title last year, but they will probably need more of the same to repeat and some serious help to win 10+ again.

A quick look at the numbers, thanks to Football Outsiders (FO), shows us that the Colts are in for some rough times. 

2011 DVOA : TOTAL 31 (2-14). No surprise here the season ended with the top pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. The Manning-less Colts were terrible on offense and defense. FO had them at 3.0 wins and they couldn't even do that.

2012 DVOA : TOTAL 25, OFF 18, DEF 31, SP 12  (11-5). This was a real stunner, with FO predicting 6.2 wins, no team outperformed their projection more than the Colts. 

2013 DVOA : TOTAL 21, OFF 13, DEF 16, SP 18 (11-5). Buoyed by the fall of Houston the Colts outperformed the predictions again (9.5 wins), but the wins papered over some serious concerns. The Colts ranked 21st in DVOA but made it to 11 wins again thanks to one of the weakest schedules in the NFL and a bunch of close calls.

DRAFT / FREE AGENCY IMPACT

The Colts only had five picks in the 2013 NFL Draft thanks to the Trent Richardson trade sending their 1st round selection to Cleveland. Only two of their picks, 2nd rounder OT Jack Mewhort and 3rd round WR Dante Moncrief, figure to have much impact this year. The Colts drafted with purpose, even with only five picks, and added depth to their offensive line and linebacker corps.

Can Hamilton and Luck make it back to the playoffs?

Free Agency was fairly similar to the draft as the Colts scooped up defensive depth. The additions of LB D'Qwell Jackson (Cleveland), DE Arthur Jones (Dallas), and S Mike Adams (Denver) represent some help, but the loss of S Antoine Bethea leaves a huge hole in the secondary. The biggest name coming over was WR Hakeem Nicks, but most analysts doubt that he will be able to replicate the 1000+ yard 2010-11 seasons he produced in New York. Nicks has also failed to play in all 16 games during his previous five years in the league, not a good sign for the Colts.