2017 Colts - Preseason

INDIANAPOLIS - The 2016 season could not have been much better for the Colts outside of a single loss, and it's hard to believe but this team could be even better. They sport the best QB in the league, the best offensive line in the league, and more offensive weapons than anyone could ever ask for. If things didn't look bad enough for the rest of the league, a free agency splurge has fortified an already formidable defense. Could the 1972 Miami Dolphins be giving up their annual ritual?

Despite everything they have, and everyone they already signed, the Colts had to fill some vacancies during OTA's. TE and DT were still a concern, so Indianapolis signed Dennis Pitta, Scott Chandler, Paul Soliai, and Glenn Dorsey on 1-year deals. The four got plenty of playing time during the preseason, along with most of the backups and rookies. Finish 3-1, with wins against the Chargers, Vikings, and Panthers is hardly an indication of anything. This team is loaded, and they could be right back in the Superbowl.

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart - 2017
Regular Offense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
WR	T.Y. Hilton	D. Rogers	T. Williams
TE	D. Pitta	S. Chandler
LT	A. Castonzo	J. Mewhort
LG	J. Mewhort	K. Finley
C	K. Holmes	K. Finley
RG	B. Fusco	K. Finley
RT	W. Vega	B. Fusco
WR	K. Allen	C. Shorts III	K. Benjamin
QB	A. Luck	J. Palmer
FB	S. Havili
HB	S. Ramsey	C. Harris (R)	R. Hillman
Base 3-4 Defense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
LDE	D. Browning	A. Jones
NT	P. Soliai	G. Dorsey
RDE	B. Vaughn	R. Duncan
LOLB	B. Werner	T. Farrell (R)
LILB	A. Dent	D. Jackson
RILB	M. Te'o	T. Farrell (R)
ROLB	V. Burfict	T. Farrell (R)
CB	V. Davis	A. Mims
SS	J. Cyprien	D. Cosby (R)
FS	B. Daniels	D. Cosby (R)
CB	K. Sampson	D. Miliner
Special Teams
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
K	T. Reyes
P	P. McAfee
H	J. Palmer
PR	R. Hillman	C. Harris
KR	R. Hillman	C. Harris
LS	K. Finley

OTA / PRE-SEASON ANSWERS

Can Harris grab the #1 spot on the depth chart?

Charlie Harris, Marshall Faulk 2.0 : When the Colts took Harris they were looking for a pass-catching option out of the backfield, but now that he's in camp he looks like so much more. Pep Hamilton has basically changed his offense into a spread that looks more like Baylor or Oregon than his old Stanfurd offenses, and that suits Harris just fine. While Shayn Ramsey did everything you could ask of a HB, and he's still #1 on the depth chart, Harris is going to keep him looking over his shoulder all season. Many coaches have called Harris the next Marshall Faulk, so he might be pretty good.

No Fly Zone : The aquisition of Jonathan Cyprien turned a very good secondary into an absolute nightmare. With teams regularly taking to the air to try and catch up with the Colts they gave up a lot of yards and struggled to stop even the worst offenses. This year could be very different with the elite talent and depth they have. Vontae Davis is probably the best, if not one of the best, corners in the NFL and Branch Daniels elevated himself to elite status at FS. Kian Sampson is starting to look like the heir apparent to Davis, and back-up Aerion Mims isn't that far behind. The addition of Dee Milliner also sealed up this unit, so we should see marked improvement in pass coverage.

Luck & Associates, Offensive Juggernaut : Teams might be waving the white flag against Indianapolis this year. After the scheme change from a two-TE power run to a spread passing team that relies on package plays this team has morphed into a destroyer of defenses. One thing that teams are going to have to deal with is the Colts stunning ability to run out of the shotgun. After barely running from the shotgun in 2014 and 2015, the Colts ran 85% of their rushing plays from the shotgun and might push that to 100% if you don't count kneel downs. Having the best offensive line in the NFL helps you do that, but it also helps to have offensive weapons at every position on the field and few teams have the players or scheme to deal with it. The 2016 Colts offense was the best ever, finishing with the highest DVOA on record, and this unit could be even better.

FALL QUESTIONS

LB Depth & Pass Rush : The LB group has good to elite starters, and the starters aren't the problem. The depth at LB is probably the single worst position on this team. Making it worse is the total lack of a pass rush outside of Vontaze Burfict. Burfict has been a one man demolition squad working off the outside shoulder of Browning and Vaughn, but opposite him Bjoern Werner hasn't been able to produce. Teams are going to be able to make adjustments knowing where the heat is coming from, so there is going to be pressure on Werner to step up. Werner has been good, but he hasn't been good enough to keep the Colts from drafting someone to replace him. The interior is solid, but they aren't good at generating pressure in the passing game. This may be the only place to attack the Colts defense, so this unit is going to need to be on it's toes all year.

Tight End (Again) : Considering the options at WR and HB, this isn't a pressing need. Dennis Pitta is a real upgrade at TE compared to last year, but Scott Chandler behind him is just a blocking TE at best. Kelvin Benjamin may get some looks out of the TE spot, but his run blocking isn't very good so he can't be relied upon in an up-tempo no-huddle offense. Pitta gives the Colts a good option, but this is the weakest point of a powerful offense.

Will Hamilton be back for 2018?

Offensive Coordinator : The 2016 Colts offense was transcendant, and yes they had Andrew Luck, but teams were beating down the doors to interview Pep Hamilton for a head coaching job. Based on the vacancies there weren't any appealing options, and ownership offered Hamilton a respectable raise through the end of this season. Hamilton's contract expires at the end of this season, along with Pagano and DC Greg Manusky, so they team will need to lock them all up with an extension if they don't want him leaving after the season. This is going to hang over the team all season, it would be better for the team to resolve it as early as possible.

2016 Colts - AFC South Projections

AFC SOUTH PROJECTIONS

Indianapolis Colts (14-2) : Being projected to win 14 games is pretty rare, but some of the advanced numbers actually have them winning that many games. Football Outsiders has their projected win total at 14.1 games, and predicts they will once again have the highest offensive DVOA in the NFL. Constantly unloading on teams is a great way to get to 14 wins, and their defense is probably going to be very good again so the rest of the division is in trouble.

Has Luck even reached his ceiling yet? Does he have one?!

Houston Texans (10-6) : The poor Texans are stuck behind the Colts in this scenario. Each of the past few seasons they have done well and made the playoffs. The problem is dropping two games to the Colts and fighting for a wild card. They have some serious issues at QB, but their offensive line and running game are strong. Just like the past few years, this teams has a really good defense, but their struggles on offense have relegated them to one-and-done status in the playoffs.

Watt continues to destroy offensive lines.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10) : The Jaguars are not that bad, in fact they do have a very solid shot at going 6-6 or better outside of their Indianapolis-Houston matchups. They are like a very poor man's Houston at this point, their offense has issues but their defense plays well enough to beat bad teams. Blake Bortles has not developed as expected under center, and he may find himself out of a starting job if things don't improve. The best thing going for them in the division it that they could easily beat Tennessee twice.

Jeffrey is Jacksonville's only weapon.

Tennessee Titans (4-12) : Projecting 4 wins for this team is really hard, especially when Football Outsiders has their expected win total at 2.6. The Titans are probably the worst team in football, a classic example of constantly drafting high gone wrong. Their QB only have one year of experience, their offense is bereft of impact talent, and their defense is basically Jurrell Casey and Brandon Spikes trying to prop up everyone. It's going to be a long year for the Titans, it will probably be Ken Wisenhunt's last if they don't make the playoffs.

Spikes goes from first to worst in exchange for a huge paycheck.

2016 Colts - Preseason

INDIANAPOLIS - The 2016 season is about to start, and thanks to the pre-season we can see how the 2016 Colts are going to be moving forward. Indianapolis will be the favorite to win it all, as they should be, but this season they didn't have a massive influx of free agents to fill positions of need. Phil Emery still looks like the best GM in football after pulling off a great draft class, but this team is hardly perfect. If the Colts can repeat after basically taking a nap during free agency, this team could be a juggernaut in 2018.

No surprises, the Colts won most of their games, though pre-season results hardly have any effect on the regular season. Most of the competition was between rookies and average vets for a small handful of starting spots. The coaches were very focused on helping depth players get some game experience.

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart - 2016
Regular Offense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
WR	T.Y. Hilton	D. Rogers
TE	J. Tamme	B. Pettigrew
LT	A. Castonzo	J. Mewhort
LG	J. Mewhort	D. Thomas
C	K. Holmes	H. Thornton
RG	B. Fusco	K. Finley (R)
RT	W. Vega (R)	D. Thomas
WR	C. Shorts III	D. Moncrief
QB	A. Luck	J. Palmer
FB	S. Havili
HB	S. Ramsey (R)	J. Forsett	M. Lattimore
Base 3-4 Defense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
LDE	D. Browning	R. Jean-Francois
NT	T. Knighton	R. Jean-Francois
RDE	B. Vaughn (R)	R. Jean-Francois
LOLB	B. Werner	E. Walden
LILB	A. Dent	A. Jackson
RILB	D. Jackson	K. Sheppard
ROLB	V. Burfict	E. Walden
CB	V. Davis	A. Mims (R)
SS	L. Landry	E. Agurs (R)
FS	B. Daniels	E. Agurs (R)
CB	K. Sampson (R)	A. Kilgore
Special Teams
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
K	T. Reyes (R)
P	P. McAfee
H	J. Palmer
PR	D. Moncrief
KR	D. Moncrief
LS	D. Thomas

OTA / PRE-SEASON ANSWERS

Andrew Luck, MVP : What else is there to say about Andrew Luck? After two consecutive MVP awards, and now a Superbowl ring, he has entered the conversation as the best QB in the NFL. With the running game a little bit of an issue, and the offense moving to more formations out of the shotgun, Luck could make an assault on some NFL passing records this season. After throwing for 4735 yards and 44TD in a balanced offense that often salted opponents away in the 2nd half with a crushing running game, it's frightening to think of what could happen if they throw the ball more.

Offensive Line Dominance : The rich get richer, and the great get greater. The Colts line was amazing last year, and it could be even better this year. Rookie RT Wayne Vega came into camp and just crushed everyone in his path, he was so good the Colts moved their line around to start him at RT. Brandon Fusco moved inside to RG and pushed Pro-Bowler Donald Thomas into a backup role. The Colts offense figures to be the best in football, and this unit is one reason why.

Starting HB : Coming into the NFL Draft the team was set to start Justin Forsett, but the preseason changed their minds. Rookie HB Shayn Ramsey impressed coaches with his pass blocking and ability to hold on to the ball. He's a bigger back than Forsett, but he isn't all that fast and doesn't provide the best receiving option. Despite all of that, Hamilton and the Colts tabbed him to be their starter.

Can Ramsey fill Richardson's shoes?

FALL QUESTIONS

Defensive Line (Again) : Donavon Browning was really good in his rookie year, and he figures to improve going forward, but this group is really thin. Snagging Terrance Knighton on a 1-year deal was a good move, but he can't play every down. Arthur Jones and Ricky Jean-Francois are backing up the ends and DT, which is not an ideal situation. Rookie Brieon Vaughn won the starting job at RE, but it wasn't that hard to win over the other options. This line is going to be very reliant on the linebackers, otherwise it's going to be hard to repeat their 2015 performance.

Tight End : After having what might have been the most dynamic TE situation in the NFL, the Colts suddenly find themselves starting two guys who are average at best. In fact, the TE situation has influenced Hamilton to make a bit of a shift in their offensive philosophy. Based on the preseason, the Colts are backing away from two-TE situations and starting to run more plays out of the shotgun. Jacob Tamme and Brandon Pettigrew, both signed on 1-year deals, are blocking TE types who might be possession receivers at best. It will be interesting to see how Luck and the offense adjust after a huge season from Dwayne Allen.

Secondary Depth : Team management tried hard to upgrade the secondary in the draft, but with LaRon Landry back in the starting lineup it still has some issues. Three of the four starters look to be solid, with Kian Sampson looking like a great draft pick, but nickel/dime/quarters defense will be a problem. There are a lot of rookies and below-average guys backing up the starters, an injury or two could kill the Colts' ability to defend the pass.

2015 Colts - AFC South Projections

AFC SOUTH PROJECTIONS

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) : The Colts look good on offense, really really good, and it's going to be really hard for the rest of this division to stop them. Thanks to two of the worst teams in football they can pencil in a 4-0 record against the Titans and Jaguars. After the changes made to the defensive roster it's doubtful this team is going to choke away victories in the waging seconds again, look for the Colts to put away opponents early and often.

Luck could win his second MVP Award.

Houston Texans (9-7) : This team is difficult to read, but they will definitely continue to be a dominant force on defense. Their issue now is the offense, and it's hard to think they can hang with the better teams in the NFL. A spot in the playoffs isn't out of the question, but they will likely need some things to break their way. They will probably need to win 10 games to make it to the playoffs, but an 8-8 season is more likely.

Houston still has the best defensive line in the division.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) : Jacksonville showed some promise last year, but they just couldn't come through. All of their young talent seems to be stagnant, Blake Bortles did not take a leap forward, and they are bereft of talent at key positions. They do have a few decent offensive linemen, but their best weapon on offense is Justin Blackmon and he can't do it all himself. They have just enough on the roster that they could win 6 games, but 5 is more likely. Experts call for them to finish in the bottom 5 for DVOA thanks to the likelihood that their offensive DVOA may be one of the worst in all of football.

Bortles and Blackmon need to step up.

Tennessee Titans (5-11) : Unfortunately for everyone involved, the Titans are not very good. They could be in the running for the worst team in the league at this rate, and there is nothing Ken Wisenhunt can do about it. Jake Locker has looked terrible and at this point probably will not become a replacement level NFL QB, the running game isn't present, and the defense lost most of it's veteran via free agency and retirement. They will be lucky to win 5 games, it's more likely they will be drafting in the Top 5 for 2016.

2015 Colts - Preseason

The pre-season is over, and the Colts look like the odds on favorite to make it to the Superbowl if not win it all. The rich get richer as Phil Emery swooped in on a few choice free agents who failed to find homes, adding CB Prince Amukamara and MLB Brandon Spikes on 1-year contracts really filled in some holes. The Colts have a few warts, but as a whole they look like the most complete team in football. The team finished 3-1 by thrashing the Chargers, Vikings, and Panthers before losing their final game to the Browns. 

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart - 2015
Regular Offense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
WR	T.Y. Hilton	D. Rogers
TE	D. Allen	C. Fleener
LT	A. Castonzo	C. Hairston
LG	J. Mewhort	E. Looney (R)
C	K. Holmes	L. Louis
RG	D. Thomas	H. Thornton
RT	B. Fusco	C. Hairston
WR	R. Wayne	C. Shorts III	D. Moncrief
QB	A. Luck	J. Palmer
FB	S. Havili
HB	T. Richardson	V. Ballard	J. Forsett
Base 3-4 Defense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
LDE	D. Browning (R)	R. Jean-Francois	Landon Stone (R)
NT	M. Hughes	J. Chapman
RDE	A. Jones	R. Jean-Francois	R. Duncan (R)
LOLB	B. Werner	E. Walden
LILB	B. Spikes	A. Dent
RILB	D. Jackson	K. Sheppard
ROLB	V. Burfict	E. Walden
CB	V. Davis	D. Butler	A. Kilgore (R)
SS	W. Moore	B. Daniels (R)
FS	L. Landry	B. Daniels (R)
CB	P. Amukamara	G. Toler	D. Odom (R)
Special Teams
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
K	A. Devito
P	P. McAfee
PR	D. Odom	T.Y. Hilton
KR	D. Odom	T.Y. Hilton
LS	K. Holmes	D. Thomas

OTA / PRE-SEASON ANSWERS

Quarterback (Again) : After taking home his first MVP award, is there any question that Andrew Luck is the heart of this team? Everyone knows he will be good, and now he has the pieces around him to be even better. There is no excuse for the Colts offense to be anything but the best, and based on the pre-season results they should be the best if not one of the best offenses in football.

Can Luck add a Superbowl ring to his MVP award?

Offensive Line : After looking a little frail going into the 2014 season this could be one of the better units in the NFL thanks to free agency and LeCharles Bentley. Brandon Fusco and Chris Hairston were added to the mix, although Hairston has struggled in his transition to RT and looks like he might be a back-up at best, but Phil Emery stepped in to help develop their players. Emery sent the entire Colts offensive line to train with LeCharles Bentley at his O-Line Performance training center after he was impressed by Khaled Holmes' development, already a client of Bentley's, and it looks like it has paid off. The starting line looks solid, and this should help keep Luck upright and Trent Richardson rolling.

Richardson's Rebirth : Richardson, once a heralded prospect, fell from grace after the 2013 season. The trade for Richardson which cost Indianapolis their 2014 1st round pick looked like a real loser coming into the season, but after rushing for 1391 yards and 12 TD it looks like the Colts have a star HB. Richardson is going to see a lot of the ball in 2015, OC Pep Hamilton continues to be dedicated to the running game and with Ahmad Bradshaw gone it's Richardson's show.

FALL QUESTIONS

Defensive Line : The front office really failed to do much for the defensive line aside from drafting DE Donavon Browning, but even he doesn't look like the next Robert Quinn. The depth isn't great, and most of the starters are aging. It looks like the group is basically just going to get in the way so the linebackers can step up and make tackles, which could be an issue. Vontaze Burfict, who has been nothing short of amazing coming off the edge, could bring some pass rush relief but that will just be papering over the problem.

Spikes is going to have a lot to do if the Colts' defensive line struggles.

Pagano's Future : Coach Chuck Pagano has done well with the Colts over the years, but 2014 was a real misstep on his part. Yes, important players were traded away, but they blew games they should have won and wasted an MVP season from Luck. New GM Phil Emery has loaded this team with free agents and a few choice draft picks, so Pagano will not have any excuses. A return to the playoffs will help him keep his job, but how far will they have to go for Pagano to avoid being replaced? Pagano is well liked by players and management, but another down season might be too much.

Is it Superbowl or bust for Pagano?

Defensive Backs : Outside of Vontae Davis, Prince Amukamara and super-rookie Branch Daniels, this is Indianapolis' weakest area. William Moore has been decent during the pre-season, but he certainly hasn't wowed anyone. LaRon Landry is slated to start at FS, but he spends more time looking over his shoulder at Daniels than he does defending passes. After Davis and Amukamara it gets really thin, so depth and dime/nickel situations will be an issue. They drafted some depth, but they are hardly more than dime coverage options at the moment. It's a good thing the Colts have a high powered offense because teams are going to be passing all over them.

2014 AFC South Predictions

AFC SOUTH PROJECTIONS

Houston Texans (10-6) : The Texans went from 12-4 to 2-14 at the drop of a hat, but most feel at it's core this team is closer to a 12-4 team than a 2-14 one. They will still be elite defensively, especially with Jadeveon Clowney and JJ Watt controlling the line of scrimmage, but offensively they will probably go through some growing pains. After passing on a QB in the draft they will have to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick after signing him off the junk heap, but they will probably continue to have a good running game so it might not be so bad. Rookie head coach Bill O'Brien is known more for his passing, their success may depend on his ability to reform a passing attack that was 15th overall in 2013. Schedule is very favorable with games against Oakland, Buffalo, and Cleveland.

Absolutely terrifying.

Indianapolis Colts (9-7) : This is more about the overall weakness of the division than the strength of the Colts, especially on defense. With the way Luck has asserted himself and played beyond his years it's very likely that the Colts claw their way back to an AFC South title, but it won't be easy. They have some brutal games (like traveling to Denver for their first game, and a visit from the Patriots) but dates with Dallas, Cleveland, and Washington will give them chances to stay ahead of their rivals. Injuries and suspensions have also limited the Colts' ceiling.

Could Luck-Hilton be the next Manning-Harrison?

Tennessee Titans (7-9) : Ken Wisenhunt takes over a team that has the potential to be very exiting, but also could fall flat on it's face. This team is going to be very dependant on Jake Locker, if Wisenhunt can work his magic they could be pretty good right away, but if Locker gets injured (again) things will go south really quickly. Schedule is decent with an opening game at vaunted Arrowhead and a late-season gift in the form of a visit from the Jets.

Locker and the Titans under Wisenhunt could surprise.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10) : The Jags are hard to read, after years of drafting high they have a lot of young talent but continue to stumble on the field. Jacksonville started 2013 0-8 before going 4-4 in the second half while looking like a completely different team. To be fair, two of those wins were against the Texans, but they showed enough to give fans hope. They will have a brutal late-night west coast game at San Diego, but they will get Cleveland, Dallas, and the NY Giants at home. They also dodge the Patriots with their AFC East match up against the Dolphins. Probably a year or two away from being decent, a lot of young talent is bound to sneak up on a team or two (or six).

Henne is probably a better fantasy option than a real QB.

2014 Colts Pre-Season

With the pre-season out of the way we have a much clearer picture of the Colts starting lineups. It's hard to read too much from scores, with the Colts finishing 2-2, but with Andrew Luck leaving after the first few series things didn't look great. Outside of the 25-7 victory over the NY Giants there wasn't much to get Colts fans excited.

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart - 2014
Regular Offense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
WR	R. Wayne	H. Nicks
TE	D. Allen	C. Fleener
LT	A. Castonzo	J. Reitz
LG	D. Thomas	J. Mewhort
C	K. Holmes	T. Austin
RG	H. Thornton	L. Louis
RT	G. Cherilus	X. Nixon
WR	T.Y. Hilton	D. Rogers
QB	A. Luck	M. Hasselbeck
FB	S. Havili
HB	T. Richardson	A. Bradshaw
Base 3-4 Defense
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
LDE	C. Redding	R. Jean Francois
NT	B. McKinney	M. Hughes
RDE	A. Jones	F. Moala
LOLB	B. Werner	E. Walden
LILB	J. Freeman	A. Jackson
RILB	D. Jackson	K. Sheppard
ROLB	R. Mathis	C. Johsnon
CB	V. Davis	G. Toler
SS	M. Adams	C. Anderson
FS	L. Landry	S. Brown
CB	D. Butler	J. Gordy
Special Teams
	STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH
K	A. Vinatieri
P	P. McAfee
PR	D. Moncrief
KR	D. Moncrief

OTA / PRE-SEASON ANSWERS

Quarterback : It wasn't really a question to start with, but if the Colts have a definitive answer anywhere it's under center. Andrew Luck is one of the best young quarterbacks (if not overall) in the NFL, and he should continue to drive the Colts. As Luck goes, so does the offense, which should be no surprise. It's all going to come down to the talent around him in 2015, even though they managed to exceed projections the last two seasons.

Luck may need an MVP season to get the Colts into the playoffs.

Special Teams : Adam Viniateri and Pat McAfee return, with Viniateri basically on the verge of retirement, and both continue to be solid. Griff Whalen and Donte Moncrief fought it out for return duties with Moncrief getting the nod after Whalen was cut. Coaches have eyed T.Y. Hilton for return duties, but he may be too valuable if Wayne or Nicks goes down with an injury.

Tight End : The assumption is that offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is going to go with more two-TE formations and emphasize the run this year. The organization has been excited about Dwayne Allen, who basically missed all of 2013 with an injury, and Coby Fleener. Fleener, a former college teammate of Luck, hasn't been able to produce the numbers expected from their relationship, but with Allen out he performed well in 2013 (52REC, 608YDS, 4TD) and hopes are that he will continue to be productive. Look for Luck to find his TE tandum if the WR group struggles with injury or performance.

FALL QUESTIONS

Defense : Alot of new faces next to ROLB Robert Mathis didn't do much to improve a unit that was 26th against the run in 2013. The Colts were decent against the pass (13th), but with SS Delano Howell moving into a starting role and CB Darius Butler starting opposite Vontae Davis, it's hard to see the Colts ranking as well in pass coverage. The Davis-Butler tandem have the ceiling of a very good pass defense, but it's hard to tell if that is ever going to materialize. The defensive line, coming out of a 3-4 scheme, is probably going to be just as bad if not worse this year. If the Colts are going to win the division or have a shot at the Wild Card they are not going to be able to depend on their defense, this is a unit that needs to be rebuilt as soon as possible.

Can Vontae Davis hold down the secondary by himself?

HB Pecking Order : Trent Richardson seemed like a no-brainer for the Colts, but now he seems like a real lemon. That being said, he still sits atop the HB depth chart, but that could change really quickly this year. Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw basically missed out on the entire 2013 season and both of them look like they could steal the starting HB job away if Richardson has a repeat of last season. All three have upside, but all three have serious downsides as well. Richardson has the advantage based on his contribution to the passing game, he still has a shot to prove that he is a 1st round talent. Few expect the Colts to rush much, but if they can't rush at all they won't be able to develop a balanced attack.

WR Depth : Reggie Wayne is 35 and coming off a season lost to injury, Hakeem Nicks is unreliable, and TY Hilton is mostly seen as a deep threat. 2014 3rd round pick Donte Moncrief is exciting, but few think he will have much impact in his rookie year, and Da'Rick Rogers only had 14 receptions last year. Unless Hilton develops into a defacto #1WR, things could get ugly pretty fast if Wayne or Nicks struggle.

2014 Colts Off-Season

Two years of exceeding expectations was quickly dashed in the first few months of 2014. The arrest and fall from grace of Colts owner Jim Irsay sent the organization into a tailspin that required immediate attention. In a stunning decision, approved by all 31 other owners, Irsay was banned from NFL ownership and forced to sell the team. While the Colts are hardly a "headline" franchise, valued at a little over $1 billion in 2012, it was a surprising move by the NFL to rid itself of a troublesome ownership situation.

With news of Irsay's ban leaking out through various sources, it didn't take long for potential ownership groups to take shape. In the end MSMG (Midwest Sports Management Group), headlined by Midwestern billionaire Warren Buffett, scooped up the team and set about rebuilding the franchise's image. The vast majority of team ownership (85%) is made up of a who's who in Midwestern / Indiana billionaires, the NFL was swayed not only by the finances but the idea of keeping the Colts in local hands. Buffet (Berkshire Hathaway) is joined by William Wrigley Jr. (Wrigley Management), Gayle Cook (Cook Group), and Herbert Simon (Simon Property Group) as the principal owners with Wrigley Jr. mostly taking charge as the face of team ownership.

The new face of ownership in Indianapolis.

Even with MSMG taking over they decided to keep team management in place so current GM Ryan Grigson would stay on for the near future. Ownership also came out in support of the current coaching staff and pledged to stay with Chuck Pagano and his coordinators. The Colts have avoided a complete rebuilding of the staff, but ownership is probably smart enough to know that March through July is a bad time to hire a completely new coaching staff. The next season or two will be key in determining what direction the team will move in.

EXPECTATIONS & TEAM TRAJECTORY

The Colts have been all over the map, especially since the departure of Peyton Manning, from Superbowl Champions to the top pick in the draft. The last two seasons under Andrew Luck were almost complete aberrations, with the surprise 11-5 season in 2012 prompting the previous ownership to double-down on 2013 and end up at 11-5 again. The sudden and almost unbelievable collapse of the Houston Texans helped the Colts to an AFC South title last year, but they will probably need more of the same to repeat and some serious help to win 10+ again.

A quick look at the numbers, thanks to Football Outsiders (FO), shows us that the Colts are in for some rough times. 

2011 DVOA : TOTAL 31 (2-14). No surprise here the season ended with the top pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. The Manning-less Colts were terrible on offense and defense. FO had them at 3.0 wins and they couldn't even do that.

2012 DVOA : TOTAL 25, OFF 18, DEF 31, SP 12  (11-5). This was a real stunner, with FO predicting 6.2 wins, no team outperformed their projection more than the Colts. 

2013 DVOA : TOTAL 21, OFF 13, DEF 16, SP 18 (11-5). Buoyed by the fall of Houston the Colts outperformed the predictions again (9.5 wins), but the wins papered over some serious concerns. The Colts ranked 21st in DVOA but made it to 11 wins again thanks to one of the weakest schedules in the NFL and a bunch of close calls.

DRAFT / FREE AGENCY IMPACT

The Colts only had five picks in the 2013 NFL Draft thanks to the Trent Richardson trade sending their 1st round selection to Cleveland. Only two of their picks, 2nd rounder OT Jack Mewhort and 3rd round WR Dante Moncrief, figure to have much impact this year. The Colts drafted with purpose, even with only five picks, and added depth to their offensive line and linebacker corps.

Can Hamilton and Luck make it back to the playoffs?

Free Agency was fairly similar to the draft as the Colts scooped up defensive depth. The additions of LB D'Qwell Jackson (Cleveland), DE Arthur Jones (Dallas), and S Mike Adams (Denver) represent some help, but the loss of S Antoine Bethea leaves a huge hole in the secondary. The biggest name coming over was WR Hakeem Nicks, but most analysts doubt that he will be able to replicate the 1000+ yard 2010-11 seasons he produced in New York. Nicks has also failed to play in all 16 games during his previous five years in the league, not a good sign for the Colts.