Tuesday, June 2, 2015

2017 Colts - Preseason

INDIANAPOLIS - The 2016 season could not have been much better for the Colts outside of a single loss, and it's hard to believe but this team could be even better. They sport the best QB in the league, the best offensive line in the league, and more offensive weapons than anyone could ever ask for. If things didn't look bad enough for the rest of the league, a free agency splurge has fortified an already formidable defense. Could the 1972 Miami Dolphins be giving up their annual ritual?

Despite everything they have, and everyone they already signed, the Colts had to fill some vacancies during OTA's. TE and DT were still a concern, so Indianapolis signed Dennis Pitta, Scott Chandler, Paul Soliai, and Glenn Dorsey on 1-year deals. The four got plenty of playing time during the preseason, along with most of the backups and rookies. Finish 3-1, with wins against the Chargers, Vikings, and Panthers is hardly an indication of anything. This team is loaded, and they could be right back in the Superbowl.

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART


Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart - 2017
Regular Offense
STARTER2ND3RD4TH
WRT.Y. HiltonD. RogersT. Williams
TED. PittaS. Chandler
LTA. CastonzoJ. Mewhort
LGJ. MewhortK. Finley
CK. HolmesK. Finley
RGB. FuscoK. Finley
RTW. VegaB. Fusco
WRK. AllenC. Shorts IIIK. Benjamin
QBA. LuckJ. Palmer
FBS. Havili
HBS. RamseyC. Harris (R)R. Hillman
Base 3-4 Defense
STARTER2ND3RD4TH
LDED. BrowningA. Jones
NTP. SoliaiG. Dorsey
RDEB. VaughnR. Duncan
LOLBB. WernerT. Farrell (R)
LILBA. DentD. Jackson
RILBM. Te'oT. Farrell (R)
ROLBV. BurfictT. Farrell (R)
CBV. DavisA. Mims
SSJ. CyprienD. Cosby (R)
FSB. DanielsD. Cosby (R)
CBK. SampsonD. Miliner
Special Teams
STARTER2ND3RD4TH
KT. Reyes
PP. McAfee
HJ. Palmer
PRR. HillmanC. Harris
KRR. HillmanC. Harris
LSK. Finley


OTA / PRE-SEASON ANSWERS




Can Harris grab the #1 spot on the depth chart?

Charlie Harris, Marshall Faulk 2.0 : When the Colts took Harris they were looking for a pass-catching option out of the backfield, but now that he's in camp he looks like so much more. Pep Hamilton has basically changed his offense into a spread that looks more like Baylor or Oregon than his old Stanfurd offenses, and that suits Harris just fine. While Shayn Ramsey did everything you could ask of a HB, and he's still #1 on the depth chart, Harris is going to keep him looking over his shoulder all season. Many coaches have called Harris the next Marshall Faulk, so he might be pretty good.

No Fly Zone : The aquisition of Jonathan Cyprien turned a very good secondary into an absolute nightmare. With teams regularly taking to the air to try and catch up with the Colts they gave up a lot of yards and struggled to stop even the worst offenses. This year could be very different with the elite talent and depth they have. Vontae Davis is probably the best, if not one of the best, corners in the NFL and Branch Daniels elevated himself to elite status at FS. Kian Sampson is starting to look like the heir apparent to Davis, and back-up Aerion Mims isn't that far behind. The addition of Dee Milliner also sealed up this unit, so we should see marked improvement in pass coverage.

Luck & Associates, Offensive Juggernaut : Teams might be waving the white flag against Indianapolis this year. After the scheme change from a two-TE power run to a spread passing team that relies on package plays this team has morphed into a destroyer of defenses. One thing that teams are going to have to deal with is the Colts stunning ability to run out of the shotgun. After barely running from the shotgun in 2014 and 2015, the Colts ran 85% of their rushing plays from the shotgun and might push that to 100% if you don't count kneel downs. Having the best offensive line in the NFL helps you do that, but it also helps to have offensive weapons at every position on the field and few teams have the players or scheme to deal with it. The 2016 Colts offense was the best ever, finishing with the highest DVOA on record, and this unit could be even better.

FALL QUESTIONS

LB Depth & Pass Rush : The LB group has good to elite starters, and the starters aren't the problem. The depth at LB is probably the single worst position on this team. Making it worse is the total lack of a pass rush outside of Vontaze Burfict. Burfict has been a one man demolition squad working off the outside shoulder of Browning and Vaughn, but opposite him Bjoern Werner hasn't been able to produce. Teams are going to be able to make adjustments knowing where the heat is coming from, so there is going to be pressure on Werner to step up. Werner has been good, but he hasn't been good enough to keep the Colts from drafting someone to replace him. The interior is solid, but they aren't good at generating pressure in the passing game. This may be the only place to attack the Colts defense, so this unit is going to need to be on it's toes all year.

Tight End (Again) : Considering the options at WR and HB, this isn't a pressing need. Dennis Pitta is a real upgrade at TE compared to last year, but Scott Chandler behind him is just a blocking TE at best. Kelvin Benjamin may get some looks out of the TE spot, but his run blocking isn't very good so he can't be relied upon in an up-tempo no-huddle offense. Pitta gives the Colts a good option, but this is the weakest point of a powerful offense.


Will Hamilton be back for 2018?

Offensive Coordinator : The 2016 Colts offense was transcendant, and yes they had Andrew Luck, but teams were beating down the doors to interview Pep Hamilton for a head coaching job. Based on the vacancies there weren't any appealing options, and ownership offered Hamilton a respectable raise through the end of this season. Hamilton's contract expires at the end of this season, along with Pagano and DC Greg Manusky, so they team will need to lock them all up with an extension if they don't want him leaving after the season. This is going to hang over the team all season, it would be better for the team to resolve it as early as possible.

Saturday, May 30, 2015

2017 Colts - NFL Draft


ARLINGTON - The NFL Draft made it's trip to Dallas this year thanks to the gracious efforts of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. The draft took place at AT&T Stadium, the first football stadium to host the event, and over twenty thousand fans made the trip. With the Colts crushing the season and free agency they headed into the draft with a short list of needs.

The Atlanta Falcons made Nebraska QB Ron Milliner the #1 overall pick, and the Buffalo Bills made Miami C Terry Brown the #2 pick. Indianapolis was trying to trade up for Brown, but ultimately the price was too high. The story of the Colts draft was trading out of the 2017 draft and into the 2018 draft with three separate trades that left them with only four selections. With no DT or TE with a 1st round grade left GM Phil Emery sent the 32nd pick to Dallas, who selected Missouri QB Khris Bloom, in exchange for a 1st & 3rd round pick in 2018. Emery also sent their 6th rounder to New Orleans for a 5th round pick in 2018 and their 7th round selection to Seattle for their 6th round selection in 2018.

While this draft was a snooze for Colts fans they will head into the 2018 draft with a whopping 13 picks thanks to the Donald Thomas trade with Pittsburgh. Their haul includes two picks in every round but the 2nd, if they can't fill their roster needs next year they might kick Emery out the door.

2017 NFL Draft - Indianapolis Colts
PickPlayerCollegePosHtWt
1 (32)Traded to DAL
2 (64)Tanner FarrellFlorida A&MMLB6'-2"240
3 (96)Charlie HarrisCaliforniaHB5'-11"220
4 (128)Domonic CosbyRutgersFS6'-1"195
5 (160)Jamerson OgeltreeClemsonCB6'-0"190
6 (192)Traded to NO
7 (224)Traded to SEA

DRAFT ANALYSIS

Best Pick(s) : Trading the 32nd pick to Dallas, MLB Tanner Farrell

With all of the best OL and DT prospects taken the trade with Dallas nets a 1st and 3rd rounder for next year. Chances are the Cowboys will not be one of the top teams in the NFL next year, so the Colts are looking at two good 1st round picks next year. Farrell flew under the radar during the season, but he wowed scouts during the combine and interviewed well. After reviewing his game film more and more teams became interested in the Florida A&M player and Indianapolis made him the first FCS player taken in the draft. He has elite size and good speed, shows sound fundamentals and looks well above average in pass coverage. If Farrell had been a Power 5 player he could have made it into the 1st round.

Worst Pick(s) : FS Domonic Cosby, CB Jamerson Ogeltree

With the Colts playing more and more Dime/Quarters coverage grabbing some secondary depth seems like a good idea. The problem is that Cosby will be a backup at best with Branch Daniels firmly seated in the starter position, that pick could have been better used on a DT. Ogeltree certainly looks interesting on paper, with good size and elite speed, but his coverage skills and footwork aren't nearly as sharp as scouts had hoped. His time at Clemson was unremarkable, and his time with Indianapolis could be the same. He will start off 5th on the CB depth chart with little chance of seeing much playing time outside of special teams. Again, this pick would have been better used on a DT.

Sleeper Pick(s) : HB Charlie Harris

It might be a stretch to say that a 3rd round pick is really a sleeper, but the Colts expect big things out of the Cal running back. Scouts and team execs were all over the place on Harris, with one scout comparing him to Jamaal Charles and another worrying that he could be a system product. While Harris didn't crack 1000 rushing yards in the Bear Raid offense, his elite speed and soft hands helped him finish 4th on the team in receiving yards (553) and receptions (50). Ultimately the Colts are looking for more versatility out of the backfield, and Harris should give them exactly that.

Draft Grade : B

While the Colts managed to get some good players, they really whiffed on filling team needs. They failed to draft a TE or a DT, which means they are going to be looking for someone off the scrap heap during camp. They also needed to add OL depth, which they didn't do, but they did add some depth at secondary. After a massive wave of free agent signings this team won't have any glaring openings, so trading back so many times makes sense for the future. Charlie Harris could be a real steal and break the cycle of signing guys to short deals to fill out the HB depth chart. Ultimately this class is more about setting up the 2018 draft.

Friday, May 29, 2015

2017 Colts - Free Agency

INDIANAPOLIS - After basically taking a year off and saving on cap space GM Phil Emery came out swinging after putting together a Superbowl winning team. If the Colts could afford to do nothing and still win it all, again, it's frightening to think about what could happen in 2017 after making a huge splash in free agency.

PRE-FREE AGENCY NEGOTIATIONS

Technically the biggest signing happened before someone could become a free agent as Andrew Luck agreed to a massive extension that will leave Colts fans happy for years to come. Luck agreed to a 7-yes $225 million deal that should see him spend the rest of his career in Indianapolis, easily the best signing of the year.

Not to be overlooked, but Khalil Holmes also signed a long term deal, although for much less money than Luck, but 6-years for $35.9 million is a good deal for one of the best centers in football. With Indianapolis sporting the best offensive line in the league it made sense to lock up their leader and captain.

OLB Bjoern Werner also agreed to a long term deal, 4-years for $8.8 million, which seems to indicate that management is happy with him for the long run.

Some of Emery's spending was fueled by who the Colts decided not to bring back. A number of players were informed that they would not receive offers, and the Colts roster will look very different this year. FS LaRon Landry, DT Terrance Knighton, MLB Kelvin Sheppard, TE Jacob Tamme, OLB Erik Walden, DE Ricky-Jean Francois, HB Justin Forsett, and HB Marcus Lattimore were allowed to hit the open market.

FREE AGENCY

While Emery came out swinging, he didn't spend blindly or fight for the big names. In fact, the Colts landed a number of deal by laying low and seeing how the market played out. The first domino to fall was SS Johnathan Cyprien, mostly because the market was so overheated for pass defenders, and Emery managed to land him for 3-years and $15 million. That looks great considering that SS J.J. Wilcox (5-year $42 million) was scooped up by Buffalo, FS Tyrann Mathieu (6-year $43 million) went back to Arizona, and FS Kenny Vaccaro (5-year $56 million) landed a princely sum with Washington.

Indianapolis also landed MLB Manti Te'o on a very nice deal, 4-years for $8.5 million, that helped give the Colts one of the most solid LB corps in the NFL. The CB market also saw a number of teams fighting fiercely over big names, Darrelle Revis landed in San Diego for a whopping 1-year $10 million deal and Miami went all out on Desmond Trufant to the tune of $58 million over 5 years. This allowed the Colts to swoop in and sign Dee Milliner for a pittance at 4-years $8 million.

The final pieces came on offense near the end of the first week of free agency. With most teams out of cap space, the Colts were free to swoop in on some under appreciated players. The biggest grab was WR Keenan Allen (5-year $25 million), who will provide the Colts with a big body receiver to compliment T.Y. Hilton. Emery also added WR Terrence Williams, Kelvin Benjamin, and HB Ronnie Hillman on cap-friendly deal.

With so much quality spending going on, it looks like there won't be much pressure on management to find starters in the draft. While it would have been good to find a long term solution at DT, this team looks to be so good it won't matter.

Friday, May 8, 2015

2016 Colts - Superbowl

1:00PM ET - January 31th, 2017
AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts
Jan 31, 20171ST2ND3RD4THSCORE
Philadelphia Eagles (#1 13-3, 7-1 Away)703010
Indianapolis Colts (#1 15-1, 7-1 Home)3147731

Top Performers

Passing : A. Luck (IND) - 311YDS, 2TD
Rushing : S. Ramsey (IND) - 21CAR, 90YDS, TD
Receiving : T.Y. Hilton (IND) - 9REC, 118YDS, TD

ARLINGTON - The wait for this Superbowl could not have been more painful for everyone involved. From the media circus surrounding Chip Kelly to the looming scowl of Jerry Jones, this game had everything the fans and media could possibly want. A rematch of last year would feature the league's best QB, and arguably best player in Andrew Luck, and two of the best offenses in football.

Despite all of the speculation and chest beating on both sides, with the media making this game out as an even match, the gambling community was not sold. Indianapolis would come into the game a whopping 18.5 point favorite, just barely breaking the record set in 1994 during Superbowl XXIX. San Francisco went into their game against San Diego as an 18 point favorite and trounced the Chargers 49-26 to cover. Considering the way Indianapolis has been playing it's surprising that Vegas didn't go to 21 points or more.

Even though the Colts boasted a truly legendary offense and a very good defense, if not an elite one, they would come face to face with their biggest weakness; the receiving HB. LeSean McCoy might not burn the Colts on the ground, but he would definitely cause issues with underneath routes and matchups with their linebackers. Containing McCoy and limiting the deep passes would be the Colts' key to victory.


Luck was not going to lose this game.

As it turned out, and most expected it, the Colts didn't need to contain McCoy to win this one. The battle between Nick Foles and Luck was closer to bringing a knife to a gunfight for the Eagles. Right out of the gate Luck established himself and the Colts offense after the Eagles managed an opening drive TD run by McCoy.

Luck took his time and used the ground game to create easy pass completions, and the Eagles had no answer. From the start of the game the Colts sapped the clock, and the Eagles just couldn't do anything about it. Indianapolis used a FG and two 2nd quarter TD's, a run and a pass to Da'Rick Rogers, to head into halftime with a 17-7 lead.

Defensively, the Colts were suffocating, and it turned into an incredible game for Donavon Browning. Browning enjoyed one-on-one matchups off the edge as the Eagles focused on Vontaze Burfict coming from outside and inside blitzes. Browning knocked Foles down after pass completions and started turning those into sacks.

Indianapolis added an 8 yard strike to T.Y. Hilton to go up 24-7 before the Eagles could come back with a 42 yard Nick Novak FG.  Philadelphia started off the 4th with a promising drive, but Chip Kelly rolled the dice once too many. Facing 4th & 1 on the Colts 35 they went for it and McCoy was stoned for a loss.


Daniels' 4th quarter INT ends the Eagles chances at coming back.

Foles came out gunning for the endzone, trying to make it more respectable, but Branch Daniels picked off a deep pass to close the door on Philadelphia's chances at covering. Indianapolis salted away the rest of the clock and clinched their second straight Superbowl victory.


Superbowl MVP Browning celebrates the Colts victory.

Foles wasn't terrible, though he was very accurate in finishing 24/26, but when you line up against Luck you need to be great or you're going to lose. Foles was not great and Luck was, but it wasn't helpful having Browning in his face all game. The Eagles' offensive line could not cope with the aggressive attack dialed up by Pagano, and when Foles wasn't being sacked he was getting hurried. This helped the Colts keep the Eagles from throwing the ball deep, allowing Indianapolis' corners to play press coverage and keep an eye on the bubble screens.

LeSean McCoy did exactly what you might expect, finishing with 8 receptions for 61 yards to go along with his 66 on the ground, but he was overshadowed by the punishing Colts run game.
Even with Luck and the offense having a great game, the NFL couldn't ignore Browning's 5 sack game and named him Superbowl MVP. Indianapolis are the first back-to-back Superbowl winners since the 04-05 New England Patriots and get to join the elusive group of repeat winners that includes Denver (98-99), Dallas (93-94), San Francisco (89-90), Pittsburgh (79-80, 75-76), Miami (73-74), and Green Bay (67-68). Now the task turns to being the first to win three in a row.

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

2016 Colts - Pro Bowl Selections

HONOLULU - The Pro Bowl returns to Hawaii, and boy do the Colts need the time to rest. With a match up against Philadelphia looming, and practically the entire Colts offense here, they wouldn't have too much time to have fun.

OFFENSE

QB Andrew Luck
HB Shayn Ramsey
WR T.Y. Hilton
WR Cecil Shorts III
WR Da'Rick Rogers
LT Anthony Castonzo
LG Jack Mewhort
C Khalid Holmes
RG Brandon Fusco
RT Wayne Vega

DEFENSE

DE Donavon Browning
DT Terrance Knighton
OLB Vontaze Burfict
P Pat McAfee

The usual suspects for Indianapolis with Andrew Luck the top vote getter in the NFL. The offense has been beyond dominant all season, perhaps even transcendent, and every position but TE is represented.

Browning and Burfict were expected, they have really risen to the challenge this year, but Knighton was a bit of a surprise for a team with DT issues. He earned the trip, but it's doubtful he'll be back next year.

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

2016 Colts - Conference Championships

1:00PM ET - January 17th, 2017
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
Jan 17, 20171ST2ND3RD4THSCORE
Denver Broncos (#2 14-2, 6-2 Away)007714
Indianapolis Colts (#1 15-1, 7-1 Home)14217042

Top Performers

Passing : A. Luck (IND) - 278YDS, 3TD
Rushing : J. Forsett (IND) - 19CAR, 123YDS, TD
Receiving : D. Rogers (IND) - 6REC, 105YDS, TD
INDIANAPOLIS - After thumping the Ravens the Colts turned their attention to getting back to the Superbowl, but more importantly they were looking for revenge. After starting the season 0-1 with a loss to the Broncos, followed by 16 straight wins, this team was very motivated to show Denver this wasn't the same team they beat in Week 1.

The Broncos would come into this game pumped up as well, they did finish 14-2, but if they had any idea how hard the Colts would punch them in the mouth they might have been a little less enthusiastic. This game was an outright beating almost from the start, and the Broncos defense would be left flat on their back begging for mercy.

Indianapolis made it 14-0 after the 1st quarter on two Shayn Ramsey TD runs, and boy did the Colts run today. Ramsey and Justin Forsett teamed up to steamroll the Broncos for 223 yards combined. Andrew Luck hit Jacob Tamme, Da'Rick Rogers, and T.Y. Hilton in the 2nd quarter to head into the break up 35-0.


Luck didn't have to do much to win this one.

Denver really should have stayed in the locker room, but there was still another half of football to play. The Broncos offense was just about as bad as their defense, with Zac Dysert being accurate but unable to move the ball down field. John Fox stuck to his game plan and kept running Montee Ball, but despite having a decent outing (14 carries for 71 yards) they just couldn't get a 1st down.

Indianapolis made it 42-0 with a Forsett TD run on their first possession of the 2nd half, and the game was pretty much over. Dysert showed some life when he hit Demaryius Thomas for a 58 yard TD, but by that point it was much too late.

The Colts hit coach Chuck Pagano with a bucket of blue Gatorade midway through the 4th quarter as most of the starters stood around looking pleased on the sidelines. The Colts would wait patiently for the Eagles-Seahawks score to see who they would face in the Superbowl.

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

2016 Colts - Divisional Playoff

1:00PM ET - January 10th, 2017
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Jan 10, 20171ST2ND3RD4THSCORE
Baltimore Ravens (#4 11-5, 5-3 Away)070714
Indianapolis Colts (#1 15-1, 7-1 Home)141371044

Top Performers

Passing : A. Luck (IND) - 292YDS, TD
Rushing : S. Ramsey (IND) - 26CAR, 146YDS, TD
Receiving : T.Y. Hilton (IND) - 7REC, 100YDS

INDIANAPOLIS - The Ravens took care of business at home last week, and the media played up the 'Nobody believes in us' angle along with the players, but it didn't take long to see why nobody believed in them. Despite being a balanced team with an excellent coach, the Ravens were almost literally run out of the building.

While Andrew Luck has an easy day, going 28/30 with only one TD, the Ravens front seven lived out a four quarter nightmare. Shayn Ramsey and Justin Forsett split carries pretty evenly, and at one point it seemed like anyone could run behind the Colts offensive line. If it wasn't for a surprising 99 yard kickoff return by rookie CB Chris Lindley the Ravens would have gone into the half down 27-0 with little to no hope of winning.


The Ravens couldn't stop the run at all.

The Indianapolis defense just ate the Ravens alive, and they couldn't get 1st downs to keep drives going. Joe Flacco only attempted 12 passes and failed to pass for over 150 yards. The sad Ravens offense, with Ray Rice getting destroyed, only managed 33 yards on the ground. Thanks to 7 sacks, 3 by Terrance Knighton, the Ravens totalled 84 passing yards. When the dust had settled Ramsey and Forsett combined for 246 yards and 3TD on 48 carries.

Top to bottom, this game was a beating, and whoever gets to play the Colts in the AFC title game is going to have their hands full.